This is a short post with a theory about the launch window of the next generation of iPhone.
There’s no ‘leak’ or ‘trusted source’ here, just using Nate Silver-esqe, Sherlockian Geek Math.
The iOS 7 betas were on a fortnightly schedule until the developer centre hacking.
iOS 7 Beta 4 landed on Monday the 29th of July.
If we take the two-week standard and what has been in the past anywhere between 4 and 7 betas, it would be safe to say that iOS 7 would take 6 betas before Gold Master (the final build for release to the mass market).
That would mean Beta 5 on August the 12th and Beta 6 on the 26th of August.
Two weeks after that the closest Tuesday (Apples usual event day) is the 10th of September.
That sees the Gold Master go to developers on the 10th with a launch of the new OS to the public two weeks later on Friday the 27th fo September. That gives developers time to get their apps ready and updated on the App Store for the launch of the new OS.
The 27th of September is also what I would expect to be the in store date for the launch of the new iPhones (fairly confident there will be two) .
There it is, a prediction based on what has gone before and is happening at the moment. I may be way off, there may be supply chain issues that change all this, but this is my answer to the question I often get ‘when’s the next iPhone coming out?’.
[ Update ] Aug 6th – Apple have loosed the 5th beta today. This isn’t a huge surprise given that Apple lost a week when the Dev. Center went down after the hack. As it stands, my guess for the hardware launch still stands. In fact, it’s even more likely, given that Samsung have an event booked in to launch the next Galaxy Note on the 4th of September. If I was one of the bigger tech sites, I’d expect my invitation to the Apple event on that date or the day before.
[ Update 2 ] Jim Dalrymple from The Loop as weighed in with his beard of knowledge and called this a firm ‘Yep‘. Given the talk of low yields of fingerprint sensors, the availability at the end of September makes more sense.
Recently, back panels have emerged of the 5S and they don’t look like coated glass, they look like they could be Liquid Metal.
[ Update 3 ] 13MB does not a beta make! A beta 7 now seems more than likely. Also the word on the street of the GM going out a week early internally and with carriers makes sense. We’re still on for event on the 1oth and launch two weeks after.
This post was written by Mark Thomson
Wednesday, July 31st, 2013